This paper tries to understand whether the size of government spending is leading to optimal marginal returns to governance in India. The effect of government size on economic growth in an endogenous growth framework is examined. The relationship between gross value-added output, combined government spending and gross capital formation in India is estimated for the period 2000-01 to 2023-24 by the VAR and SVAR methods. The estimated results show that government expenditure negatively affects economic growth with a three-year lag and a non-linear inverted U-shaped Dick Armey Curve in India. The results suggest that India has already achieved the highest attainable growth for the given size of government and is operating at the negative part of the curve with diminishing returns to public expenditure. The government should cut down its expenditure for positive effects of governance on the economy, in view that this expenditure will affect growth only after some years from now.

Keywords: Governance, government size, government expenditure, economic growth, endogeneity, causality, vector autoregression.

This essay critically examines fifty years of global economic policy coordination among the Group of Seven (G7), the BRICS grouping (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa), and major regional associations, tracing the evolution from the collapse of Bretton Woods to the fractured multilateralism of the 2020s. Drawing on seminal and recent scholarship in international political economy, macroeconomics, and institutional theory, it evaluates key episodes of coordination — the Plaza Accord (1985), the Washington Consensus (1989–2000s), the G20 London Summit (2009), and post-pandemic fiscal compacts- and assesses their achievements and shortcomings. The essay argues that coordination has been episodically effective in crises but structurally constrained by power asymmetries, ideological divergence, and the absence of enforceable mechanisms. Projections for 2025–2045 suggest a bifurcated global architecture, with growth increasingly concentrated in the Global South and macroeconomic stabilisation increasingly contested between rival monetary blocs. The essay concludes with a discussion of institutional limitations and directions for reform.

Keywords: G7, BRICS, global economic governance, macroeconomic coordination, Washington Consensus, Plaza Accord, G20, regional integration, international political economy. 

This study examines the impact of government policy on agricultural performance in Nigeria from 1981 to 2024 using a dynamic time-series framework. Agricultural performance, proxied by agricultural value added, is modeled as a function of government agricultural expenditure, agricultural credit, gross fixed capital formation, money supply, and inflation. The study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Error Correction Model (ECM) to capture both short-run dynamics and long-run effects. Results reveal that agricultural credit and capital formation have significant positive effects on agricultural output, while government expenditure and money supply exhibit lagged and mixed impacts. Inflation shows minor but occasionally negative effects, highlighting the sensitivity of agriculture to macroeconomic conditions. The ECM coefficient confirms a moderate speed of adjustment to long-run equilibrium. Diagnostic and stability tests indicate that the model is well-specified, stable, and free from heteroskedasticity. The findings underscore the importance of targeted credit provision, investment in agricultural infrastructure, and macroeconomic stability in enhancing agricultural productivity. The study recommends consistent and efficient government interventions to strengthen Nigeria’s agricultural sector, reduce external dependence, and promote sustainable economic growth.

Keywords: Agricultural Policy, Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, ARDL Model.
JEL Codes: Q18; Q18; E52; H54.

This paper utilizes canonical correlation analysis to investigate the complex interplay between stock market performance and macroeconomic variables amidst the global economic disruptions caused by COVID-19 pandemic. While the immediate effects of the pandemic have subsided, the crisis highlights the urgent need to understand how economic shocks are transmitted through financial markets—especially in emerging economies. Using data from January 2020 to December 2023, the study focuses on five major sectors of the Nigerian stock market to provide insights into these dynamics. Our findings challenge the conventional narrative by demonstrating that the pandemic’s influence on stock market performance was not immediate or direct, but rather mediated through broader macroeconomic channels—most notably, exchange rate volatility emerged as the primary conduit. The analysis also uncovers pronounced sectoral vulnerabilities within the Nigerian Stock Exchange, particularly in the Banking, Consumer Goods, and Oil & Gas sectors. These results lend empirical support to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory, affirming that stock markets in emerging economies remain acutely sensitive to macroeconomic fluctuations, even during periods of global economic upheaval. The study’s insights carry significant implications for other emerging markets, offering valuable guidance for policymakers and investors in navigating the complexities of the COVID-19 era.

Keywords: COVID-19 pandemic; Stock market sectors; Macroeconomic variables; Emerging markets; Canonical correlation analysis.

This study investigated the effect of cashless policy instruments on financial sector development in Nigeria over the period 2014–2024 using quarterly data. Cashless policy proxies included automated teller machine (ATM) transactions, point-of-sale (POS) transactions, internet banking (IB), and mobile banking (MB), while financial sector development was measured using a composite index. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) framework was employed to estimate both short-run and long-run dynamics. The results showed that ATM, MB and POS indicated positive and significant effect on the financial sector development in the short run. In the long run, MB and IB were significant to enhance financial sector performance. The study further confirmed a moderate speed of adjustment toward equilibrium. The study therefore concluded that cashless policy had contributed to the growth of Nigeria financial system, albeit marginally. The control variables mostly exhibited the predicted behavior. This study recommended increased investments in technology by Nigerian banks and financial institutions to further increase seamless cashless transactions. It was also essential for the government to strengthen cybersecurity measures and uphold data privacy laws to raise public confidence in the system.

Keywords: Cashless policy, financial sector development, ARDL, Nigeria.

The increasing fiscal burden on healthcare systems has strengthened the need to analyse healthcare utilisation in terms of economic efficiency. Both conventional biomedical care and traditional systems coexist in the pluralistic healthcare systems in India. Traditional and complementary healthcare systems are institutionalised under AYUSH systems in India. Despite the escalating utilisation of AYUSH services, limited empirical findings exist on its cost-adjusted utilisation efficiency across different ailments and diseases. Attempting to bridge this gap, this study creates a Cost-Adjusted Preference Index (CAPI) to evaluate the relationship between preference of utilisation and treatment cost across different AYUSH systems and diseases in North-East India. For this study, the NSS 79th round data set was used. Preference share (proxy for demand) and Cost intensity (proxy for price) are used to develop CAPI. Results exhibit that Unani has the highest mean CAPI, which indicates significant demand relative to expenditure in distinct ailments sectors like dental, gastrointestinal, cosmetic, etc. Ayurveda captured the largest share of AYUSH utilisation with moderate cost-adjusted performance. Whereas, Yoga and Naturopathy account for relatively higher cost-adjusted efficiency than Ayurveda. This CAPI framework gives a novel health-economic tool to analyse demand-cost coherence and may assist policy efforts for escalating allocative efficiency and fostering universal health coverage goals.

Keywords: AYUSH utilisation, Cost-Adjusted Preference Index (CAPI), Preference Share, Cost Intensity.
JEL Classification: I11, I18, D24, C23, D12.

This study examined the long-run and short-run effect of financial inclusion on poverty alleviation in Nigeria from 1992 to 2023. The research utilized the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model for its estimations. The findings indicated a significant and positive relationship between several financial inclusion variables and poverty reduction in the long run. Specifically, the long-run results showed that an increase in the number of commercial bank branches had a diminishing but significant impact on the poverty rate. Similarly, higher deposit mobilization by banks in rural areas, loans granted under the agricultural credit guarantee scheme, and increased commercial bank credit to small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) all led to a significant decline in the poverty rate. However, microfinance banks' loans were found to have a negative but insignificant impact on poverty alleviation in the long run. The short-run analysis revealed mixed results across the different variables. The study concluded that various financial inclusion initiatives, particularly those targeting rural areas, agriculture, and SMEs, are effective tools for long-term poverty alleviation in Nigeria.

Keywords: Financial inclusion, poverty alleviation, ARDL, Nigeria.

This paper has as objective to empirically investigate the contribution of bank deposits on the growth of total banks’ assets in Cameroon. The study was motivated by the fact that, bank assets played a mighty role in the economy, but recent study have almost neglected it. To address this situation, after exploring related theoretical and empirical literature, time series data collected mainly from WDI and IFS from 1998 to 2023 were used. Multivariate causal research design was adopted. Ordinary least square technique was used to estimate the parameters of the model after verifying its pre-tests. The model was found to be in correct functional form after diagnosing the residual for heteroscedasticity, autocorrelation and the normality. The regression model was globally significant at 1% and satisfactorily adequate with all the independent variables accounting for 94.4 percent of the changes in growth of banks. After controlling for a good number of other macroeconomic variables, all the three components of bank deposits positively influence the growth of banks as expected. The effect of demand deposits was positive but insignificant, the effect of saving deposits was significantly positive and that of time deposits was also positive and highly significant. Growth of bank can therefore be accelerated by efficiently attracting more of long-term deposits, saving deposits and demand deposit in that order.

Keywords: Bank deposits, growth of banks, Cameroon.

This study investigates the impact of China’s international trade with Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) on its economic growth over the period 1980-2024. The analysis employs the ADF unit root test, Johansen cointegration test, Granger causality test, and stability test. The Johansen cointegration test indicates that GDP is positively associated with China’s trade with SSA, external debt, and energy consumption, while it is negatively related to inflation and oil price. The Granger causality test reveals a unidirectional short-run causality relationship running from GDP to China’s trade with SSA and external debt, with no evidence of short-run causality relationship between energy consumption, inflation, oil price, and GDP. In contrast, the long-run analysis shows bidirectional causality relationship between China’s trade with SSA, external debt, inflation, and GDP, and a unidirectional causality relationship from external debt and oil price to GDP. Finally, the stability test confirms that there are no structural changes in the model. These findings suggest that China’s trade relations with SSA, alongside macroeconomic factors such as external debt and energy consumption, play a significant role in shaping its economic growth.

Keywords: China, SSA, economic growth, international trade.
JEL codes: O11, E20.

This paper analyzed inflation rate dynamics in Sub-Saharan African countries (Nigeria, South Africa and Ghana) during the period, 1980 – 2020. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed due to the mixed level of integration at levels and first difference. The study found that the inflation rate had a long-run cointegrating relationship with gross domestic product. The ECM showed that inflation rate dynamics had a time varying effect on the real economy. In the long run, it was observed that the inflation rate hindered real economic growth across Nigeria, South Africa and Ghana but it was significant for South Africa and insignificant for Nigeria and Ghana. It was also realized that the economy of Ghana adjusted rapidly to macroeconomic shocks than Nigeria and South Africa which justifies it as the fastest growing economy in the SSA region. Generally, it was found that the economies of Nigeria, South Africa and Ghana were faced with inflationary pressure, especially in the short run. Consequently, it was insinuated that the monetary authorities carefully identify the underlying causes of such inflationary pressures and apply the appropriate policy (such as monetary and fiscal policy) to curtail them to foster the domestic economic productivity of countries.

Keywords: Inflation, real economy, SSA, ARDL.

This study examines the dynamic relationships of crude oil prices, economic policy uncertainty (EPU), and exchange rate volatility through a comparison of oil-exporting and oil-importing countries. Our approach integrates the PVAR model with the DCC-GARCH framework in analyzing monthly data from the year 2000 to 2023 for a sample of twelve countries. The PVAR results highlight significant asymmetries in the transmission of shocks. A positive oil price shock leads to a 1.2% currency appreciation for oil-exporting countries, while for oil-importing countries, it is characterized by a 0.6% depreciation. Finally, EPU shocks are associated with a consistent depreciation of the currency, although with a larger impact for oil-importers at 0.7% than for oil-exporters at 0.4%. Moreover, in the DCC-GARCH analysis, these correlations turn out to be time-varying, increasing sharply during crises; for instance, they surged by 40-60% during the COVID-19 pandemic. Based on state-of-the-art econometrics, these results provide a systematic comparative evidence that has important implications for monetary policy design and risk management in an increasingly integrated global economy.

Keywords: Oil prices, Economic policy uncertainty, Exchange rate volatility, PVAR, DCC-GARCH, Comparative analysis.
JEL Classification: F31, Q43, E44, C58.

This article uses propensity score matching to assess the impact of mobile money on women's financial inclusion compared to men's in Cameroon. The results, based on 2021 World Bank Findex data, show that overall, regardless of place of residence, there is a reduction in financial inclusion inequalities in favor of women. Indeed, the adoption of mobile money increases women's financial inclusion by approximately 5 percentage points, from 64% to 69%, depending on the algorithm used, while it increases men's by only about 3 percentage points, from 63% to 66%. Furthermore, women who use mobile money are more financially included than male users, and more so than their counterparts who do not use it. In rural areas, however, mobile money has a greater impact on men's financial inclusion than on women's. Finally, financial inclusion via mobile money takes precedence over inclusion through bank accounts. In this regard, providers of this product would benefit from strengthening women's financial literacy and skills, particularly in rural areas, in order to reduce inequalities in access to financial services.

Keywords: Financial inclusion, mobile money, PSM.
JEL: E51, G21, G29.

Structural transformation involves the redistribution of economic activity among broad sectors like agriculture, manufacturing and services. The economy of Himachal Pradesh during its statehood in 1971 was heavily reliant on agriculture. The primary sector played a significant role in the GSDP and employment. But with the passage of time as the process of development proceeded, the %age contribution of the primary sector to the GSDP decreased and that of the secondary and tertiary sectors increased. The present study aims to examine the structural changes and patterns of agricultural development in the economy of Himachal Pradesh over the period 2005-06 to 2020-21. This work is significant because it provides a thorough and in-depth discussion of the process of structural change in Himachal Pradesh, which has not been covered in earlier research. Based on secondary data sources, the study employs simple statistical tools like splicing technique and compound annual growth rates to examine the economic indicators like GSDP, area, production and yield of principal crops of the state. The study found that the contribution of the primary sector to GSDP in Himachal Pradesh significantly declined, while the secondary and tertiary sectors experienced substantial growth, indicating a shift towards industrialization and a service-led economy. The results of the study showed that while pulses exhibited the highest growth rates in production and yield, the pattern of agricultural transformation is shifting in favour of commercial crops like chillies and oilseeds as opposed to traditional food crops like wheat, maize, rice, barley, ragi, and common millets. The study concludes with some policy suggestions like expansion and modernization of agricultural techniques, irrigation systems and promotion of land consolidation and cooperative farming to address challenges such as groundwater dependence, declining net sown area, and land fragmentation.

Keywords: Structural change, sectoral contribution, agricultural development, cropping patterns, Himachal Pradesh.