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In this paper, we examine the question of whether improvements in credit access institutions in developing and least developed countries can better facilitate their imports. Particularly, we focus on India’s exports to African countries. Since India is not part of many of the major pluri-lateral trade negotiations, one trade-expansion strategy being proposed by Indian policymakers is to expand trade to under-explored destination countries, many of which exist in Africa. Access to credit in many African countries has been historically poorer than other countries, but it has been improving over the years. Our objective is to empirically examine whether the improved access to credit leads to expansion of exports from India to these countries. Compiling a rich and unique dataset from multiple data sources for trade in 25 African countries and other variables, we estimate the effects of credit access on India’s exports to these countries using the well-established PPML method. We find positive effects of credit access on India’s exports to African countries; we also find that the gravity model that does not factor in credit variables yields different results on GDP and income effects, implying the importance of accounting for credit variables in Gravity-based studies.

This study aims to empirically investigate the role of financial inclusion in economic growth in 23 emerging and developing countries in Asia using panel data analysis ranges from 2005 to 2019. GMM panel data estimation is used to estimate the long run relationship between the variables. Four variables namely automated teller machines per 100,000 adults, borrowers from commercial banks per 1,000 adults, depositors with commercial banks per 1,000 adults, and life insurance premium volume to GDP are employed to represent financial inclusion. The result shows that all financial inclusion variables significantly have a positive impact on economic growth in emerging and developing countries in Asia. Our study also reveals that there is a unidirectional causality running from financial inclusion to economic growth. The main conclusion drawn is that a higher level of financial inclusion is a necessary condition in long run growth.

Keywords: Financial inclusion; Economic growth; Emerging; Developing; Asia

JEL classification: E44, E52, F43

This research documents the form of trends in the four factor model in the Nigeria capital market. In addition will determine among others whether market factor perform well than non-market factor and examine size and value effects across the portfolio and market. Monthly average return of fifty nine (59) stocks were employed from Jan.2012 to June 2017 to test for the validity of four factor model and compare with single factor and three-factor models. Descriptive and ordinary least square are used in analysing the parameters for the conditional and unconditional form of the models. The study documents that size is profitable in high beta portfolio and low return market condition and value effects are only statistically valid in a low beta portfolio condition. Momentum effects are stronger in the portfolio with high beta and market condition with low return. The findings demonstrate that momentum profits were generated more than 1 per cent throughout the period and the return of the market shows evidence of mean reversion and underreaction to news in the market. The study recommends that investors discounting the expected return of their investments or computing the required rate of return of investments should adopt the four-factor model. The use of a single factor model for discounting/compounding should be discouraged because its explanatory power lacks basic information and the government through the appropriate authority should provide ‘bail up fund’ to the capital market to ensure that the market is adequate liquid; so that the incidence of thin trading can be addressed. Additionally, the flotation charges and listing requirements should be lessened to allow frequent quotations in the market.

Keywords: Momentum; Momentum; Risk Premium; Value Premium; Size Premium; Four-factor model.

This study investigates the relationship between workers’ remittances and imports in Cote d’Ivoire during the period from 1975 to 2017. The study employs the bounds testing approach to cointegration and the Granger causality test in the examination of this relationship. The results show that in the long run, remittances and domestic income are positively and significantly related to import demand. The Granger causality test results show bidirectional causality between imports and remittances both in the long and short run. Furthermore, domestic income was found to cause imports and remittances both in the long and short run. Therefore, the role played by remittances and economic growth becomes crucial in determining the trade balance of Cote d’Ivoire.

Keywords: remittances, imports, causality, Cote d’Ivoire

JEL classification: C32, F10, F22

This paper examines the efficiency of the forecasting properties of time series models, namely the ARIMA and hybrid ARIMA-GARCH models on daily data of Gold prices for the period 2018 to 2019. First, the paper assesses the unique features of financial data, particularly volatility clustering and fat-tails of the return distribution, and addresses the limitations of using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models in financial economics. Secondly, it examines the application of GARCH models for forecasting of both conditional means as well as the conditional variance of the returns. Moreover, using the standard model selection criteria such as AIC, BIC and SIC, the forecasting performance of various candidate ARIMA and GARCH models are examined for an out of sample period. The findings of this paper are that a hybrid ARIMA-GARCH model performs better than an ARIMA or GARCH model by itself in terms of forecasting the returns and volatility of Gold price series. In summary, while ARIMA models have shown the ability to capture the autoregressive process, GARCH models had to be utilised to capture the intense volatility of the Gold commodity. The empirical results obtained in this paper could guide investors to manage risk and return better on their investment decisions.

Keywords: ARIMA, GARCH, volatility, forecasting.

JEL Classifications: C58,C52,G15

An empirical research that underscores the interaction between corporate R&D investment and firm performance through the moderation of a behavioural variable (Investor Sentiment) is imperative in modern times. This study analyzes how investor sentiment serves as a moderator for the relation between R&D investment and firm performance. We argued with empirical basis that, investor sentiment moderates the said relation. We examined a nine-year panel data, from 2009 to 2017, consisting of 3500 Chinese listed firms. The empirical results revealed that, investor sentiment statistically moderates the relation between R&D investment and performance of firms. Results from the analysis also suggested a direct association between firms R&D investment and performance, with investor sentiment as a moderator. A robustness checks on the findings was conducted and then discussed its contribution, theoretically and practically.

Keywords: Investor sentiment, R&D investment, firm performance, moderating effect.